Simply the Best
Southern Crescent Counties
2009 v. 2006
A Comparison
Sales Trends
The below table lists each of the 9 Southern Crescent counties comparing '09 and '06 unit and dollar volume sales with percent change in the past 3 years. Additionally, it shows average home prices for each of the counties along with months supply of inventory as of Jan 1, 2010, a universally accepted benchmark for the health or lack thereof of a particular market. (a 6 months supply is optimum).
Much conversation and rumor is exchanged among agents and the general public relative to "things getting better" or other guesses about trends, rebounding, et al. In the final analysis, nothing beats hard historical undeniable facts dispelling seat of the pants attitudes and guesses. There is no denying that in the past 3 years, the floor has simply fallen out from under real estate sales with dollar volume sales losing more than half of its 2006 pinnacle, a combination of reduced unit sales compounded with average prices falling into an abyss. We've watched almost $2.5 BILLION dollars or 56.6% disappear within 36 short months. 2010 is continuing that downward trend with little relief in sight.
We hear the word "rebound" batted around quite often even in the face of hard facts suggesting otherwise. There has been no rebound and whenever one does begin it will be very slow with some prognosticators suggesting 10 to 15 year to return to 2006 values.
Hardest hit has been Henry County which has lost 63.9% of its dollar volume sales with Clayton not far behind at 61%. No county was immune from this recessionary freight train and when it pulled into the station in 2007, it seems to have parked and made itself a cozy home.
Average prices of homes have been equally devastated falling 36.6% on average with Clayton leading the pack with a 56.5% free fall. Coweta and Fayette suffered the least in this category posting a smidge less than 17%. But both counties are missing almost three-quarters of a BILLION DOLLARS in sales collectively.
Over 21% of the collective real estate sales staff has exited the business in the past 24 months along with a third of all real estate firms.
Among the over 1,000 real estate firms in the southern crescent, Bush Real Estate Group maintains our #1 position as "the largest and most successful real estate firm in Georgia south of Lenox Square" and continues to adjust and grow. With some of the finest and most experienced Associates in the southern crescent, we refused to join this great recession. Bush Group sales are more than positive posting $86 Million in 2009 sales, a 47% increase over 2008. As 2010 is coming into focus, growth and sales for our firm continue on the upswing with the future looking brighter than ever. With 151 agents and the largest client base in the region, momentum helps to ensure a positive trend. Inspiration combined with a superior work ethic and a commitment to success for our clients keeps the momentum moving forward.
Below 3 tables for the 9 southern crescent counties are all ranked by 2009 dollar volume for all homes.
All Home Sales
|
County |
2009 |
2006 |
% |
'09 # |
'06 # |
% |
2009 |
2006 |
% |
Months |
|
$387,154,140 |
$1,071,806,494 |
- 63.9% |
2,895 |
5,258 |
- 44.9% |
$133,732 |
$203,843 |
- 34.4% |
10.0 | |
|
$287,113,824 |
$658,550,244 |
- 56.4% |
1,098 |
2,103 |
- 47.8% |
$261,488 |
$313,148 |
- 16.5% |
13.7 | |
|
$274,144,033 |
$621,387,354 |
- 55.9% |
1,601 |
3,017 |
- 46.9% |
$171,233 |
$205,962 |
- 16.9% |
12.3 | |
|
$268,232,832 |
$476,536,931 |
- 43.7% |
2,664 |
2,801 |
- 4.9% |
$100,688 |
$170,131 |
- 40.8% |
8.3 | |
|
$232,426,880 |
$596,497,620 |
- 61.0% |
4,060 |
4,535 |
- 10.5% |
$57,248 |
$131,532 |
- 56.5% |
6.6 | |
|
$195,641,488 |
$407,059,374 |
- 51.9% |
1,576 |
2,234 |
- 29.4% |
$124,138 |
$182,211 |
- 31.9% |
10.8 | |
|
$108,738,008 |
$228,555,738 |
- 52.4% |
1,124 |
1,602 |
- 29.8% |
$96,742 |
$142,669 |
- 32.2% |
10.4 | |
|
$71,552,220 |
$137,736,490 |
- 48.1% |
557 |
1,006 |
- 44.6% |
$128,460 |
$136,915 |
- 6.2% |
15.8 | |
|
$48,404,370 |
$117,200,250 |
- 58.7% |
530 |
970 |
- 45.4% |
$91,329 |
$120,825 |
- 24.4% |
13.0 | |
|
TOTAL |
$1,873,407,795 |
$4,315,330,495 |
- 56.6% |
16,105 |
23,526 |
- 31.5% |
$116,325 |
$183,428 |
- 36.6% |
9.9 |
*2010 sales estimated based on 1st 6 month's dollar volume sales annualized & seasonally adjusted.
* 2010 Avg Price as of June 30, 2010
Southern Crescent Counties
Percentage growth of "Under $100K" price point sales since 2006
and the consequential 38.8% decline in average prices.
The increase as a % of total unit sales in the "Under $100K" price point has been 298.6% in just over 3 years.
* Millions
Existing Home Sales
|
|
2009 |
2006 |
% |
'09 # |
'06 # |
% |
2009 |
2006 |
% |
Months |
|
Henry |
$264,828,744 |
$565,069,410 |
- 53.1% |
2,219 |
3,214 |
- 31.0% |
$119,346 |
$175,815 |
- 32.1% |
10.7 |
|
Fayette |
$233,484,836 |
$466,304,760 |
- 49.9% |
956 |
1,656 |
- 42.3% |
$244,231 |
$281,585 |
- 13.3% |
15.0 |
|
Coweta |
$176,154,952 |
$323,453,200 |
- 45.5% |
1,192 |
1,745 |
- 31.7% |
$147,781 |
$185,360 |
- 20.3% |
13.7 |
|
So Fulton |
$180,314,186 |
$221,121,605 |
- 18.4% |
2,119 |
1,457 |
+ 45.4% |
$85,094 |
$151,765 |
- 43.9% |
7.8 |
|
Clayton |
$192,770,774 |
$403,761,486 |
- 52.3% |
3,703 |
3,282 |
+ 12.8% |
$52,058 |
$123,023 |
- 57.7% |
6.2 |
|
Douglas |
$151,412,400 |
$264,262,770 |
- 42.7% |
1,370 |
1,565 |
- 12.5% |
$110,520 |
$168,858 |
- 34.5% |
11.6 |
|
Carroll |
$93,587,824 |
$160,062,804 |
- 41.5% |
1,016 |
1,188 |
- 14.5% |
$92,114 |
$134,733 |
- 31.6% |
10.9 |
|
Troup |
$48,042,572 |
$98,269,344 |
- 51.1% |
428 |
747 |
- 42.7% |
$112,249 |
$131,552 |
- 14.7% |
15.9 |
|
Spalding |
$36,932,805 |
$77,460,712 |
- 52.3% |
455 |
718 |
- 36.6% |
$81,171 |
$107,884 |
- 24.8% |
14.5 |
|
TOTAL |
$1,377,529,093 |
$2,579,766,091 |
- 46.6% |
13,458 |
15,572 |
- 13.6% |
$102,358 |
$165,667 |
- 38.2% |
10.0 |
New Home Sales
|
|
2009 |
2006 |
% |
'09 # |
'06 # |
% |
2009 |
2006 |
% |
Months |
|
Henry |
$122,325,396 |
$506,737,084 |
- 75.9% |
676 |
2,044 |
- 66.9% |
$180,955 |
$247,914 |
- 27.0% |
8.5 |
|
Fayette |
$53,628,988 |
$190,245,484 |
- 71.8% |
142 |
447 |
- 68.2% |
$377,669 |
$425,605 |
- 11.3% |
9.6 |
|
Coweta |
$97,989,081 |
$297,934,154 |
- 67.1% |
409 |
1,272 |
- 67.8% |
$239,582 |
$234,225 |
+ 2.3% |
10.4 |
|
So Fulton |
$87,918,646 |
$255,415,326 |
- 65.6% |
545 |
1,344 |
- 59.4% |
$161,319 |
$190,041 |
- 15.1% |
11.1 |
|
Clayton |
$39,656,106 |
$192,736,134 |
- 79.4% |
357 |
1,253 |
- 71.5% |
$111,082 |
$153,820 |
- 55.6% |
12.4 |
|
Douglas |
$44,229,088 |
$142,796,604 |
- 69.0% |
206 |
669 |
- 69.2% |
$214,704 |
$213,448 |
+ 0.6% |
9.4 |
|
Carroll |
$15,150,184 |
$68,492,934 |
- 77.9% |
108 |
414 |
- 73.9% |
$140,279 |
$165,442 |
- 15.2% |
6.4 |
|
Troup |
$23,509,648 |
$39,467,146 |
- 40.4% |
129 |
259 |
- 50.2% |
$182,245 |
$152,382 |
+ 19.6% |
13.6 |
|
Spalding |
$11,471,565 |
$39,739,538 |
- 71.1% |
75 |
252 |
- 70.2% |
$152,954 |
$157,697 |
- 3.0% |
7.6 |
|
TOTAL |
$495,878,702 |
$1,735,564,404 |
- 71.5% |
2,647 |
7,954 |
- 66.7% |
$187,336 |
$218,200 |
- 14.1% |
9.8 |
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Southern Crescent Counties
All Home Sales
1st 6 months 2010 v. 1st 6 months 2009
A Comparison
Despite the tax credit and positive economic news coming out of Washington, there has been no rebound and the bottom has not been reached. Bringing the comparisons into the 1st 6 months of 2010 (see below table), several noteworthy stats come into focus.
- Dollar Volume continues to lose ground by an additional 6.0%
Average prices of homes decreased another 2.7%
Unit sales continue the downward trend reporting a 3.4% decline.
- The real estate meltdown has slowed from the torrent that existed from 2007 through 2009 when the entire industry fell into an abyss to a less frightening and slower tumble. The trend is expected to continue for the remainder of 2010 and into 2011. Beyond 2011, no one really knows. Any future rebound is certainly dependent on many things, the least of which are;
- The economy in general
Loosening of credit by lenders
A resurrection of the new home industry
Consumer confidence changing direction
Unemployment reducing well below 10%
The stock market
|
County |
1st 6 Months |
1st 6 Months |
% |
1st 6 Months |
1st 6 Months |
% |
1st 6 Months |
1st 6 Months |
% |
Months |
|
$184,905,481 |
$179,831,787 |
+ 2.7% |
1,443 |
1,284 |
+ 11.0% |
$128,140 |
$140,055 |
- 8.5% |
9.3 | |
|
$134,946,569 |
$130,203,942 |
+ 3.6% |
835 |
755 |
+ 10.6% |
$161,613 |
$172,456 |
- 6.3% |
12.2 | |
|
$128,352,309 |
$135,653,882 |
- 5.4% |
501 |
517 |
- 3.1% |
$256,192 |
$262,387 |
- 2.4% |
15.9 | |
|
$114,376,068 |
$133,509,900 |
- 14.3% |
1,177 |
1,329 |
- 11.4% |
$97,176 |
$100,458 |
- 3.3% |
8.2 | |
|
$97,475,760 |
$113,741,890 |
- 14.3% |
1,723 |
2,087 |
- 17.4% |
$56,573 |
$54,500 |
+ 3.8% |
7.1 | |
|
$86,030,216 |
$98,936,415 |
- 13.0% |
741 |
775 |
- 4.4% |
$116,100 |
$127,659 |
- 9.1% |
11.7 | |
|
$46,431,371 |
$55,200,168 |
- 15.9% |
559 |
545 |
+ 2.6% |
$83,061 |
$101,284 |
- 18.0% |
10.7 | |
|
$35,263,761 |
$32,946,025 |
+ 6.6% |
317 |
266 |
+ 19.2% |
$111,242 |
$123,857 |
- 10.2% |
15.2 | |
|
$22,895,077 |
$25,119,753 |
- 8.9% |
279 |
284 |
- 1.8% |
$82,061 |
$88,449 |
- 7.2% |
13.7 | |
|
TOTAL |
$850,676,612 |
$905,143,762 |
- 6.0% |
7,575 |
7,842 |
- 3.4% |
$112,300 |
$115,422 |
- 2.7% |
10.3 |
